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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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When risk aversion and easing are on the same stage, can EUR/USD still hold up?
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: When risk aversion and easing are on the same stage, can the EUR/USD still hold up?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (October 9), during the North American session, the EURUSD repeatedly saw action around the 1.1600 mark. Since falling from the high of 1.1819, the exchange rate has fluctuated and weakened; the current gain or loss of the 1.16 integer is becoming a critical point in direction selection.
Fundamentals:
The news this week is not noisy, but it affects pricing one by one. On the one hand, rising uncertainty about the U.S. federal government's shutdown has brought safe-haven buying to the U.S. dollar; on the other hand, France's internal political instability has exerted a structural drag on the euro. The new Prime Minister Sebastian Le Corni resigned at the beginning of the week, and the feasibility of the budget and reform advancement was questioned by the market.
In terms of monetary policy, the minutes of the September FOMC meeting showed that members had differences on the path of interest rate cuts, and were generally dovish; New York Fed President John Williams supported further easing in the xmspot.coming months, saying that inflation is slowly falling and the slowdown in employment momentum is worthy of attention, which has cooled the upward momentum of U.S. bond yields. The minutes of the European Central Bank meeting emphasized that concerns about the uncertainty of the external environment have increased, but there is no urgency to adjust policies in the short term, and the xmspot.committee still has differences in the judgment of inflation risks.
In terms of economic data, Germany's trade surplus expanded to 17.2 billion euros in August, but it was dominated by a 1.3% decline in imports. At the same time, exports fell again by 0.5%, which was mutually verified by the previous industrial output of -4.3% in August, showing that the core manufacturing boom is still weak. Taken together: growth on the euro side is soft and political noise is high; interest rate expectations on the U.S. dollar side are moderate but cash liquidity is still strong, and the fundamentals of the euro against the U.S. dollar are still weak.
Technical aspect:
The current observation window is the 240-minute K-line. The middle track of Bollinger Bands is 1.1667, the upper track is 1.1758, and the lower track is 1.1577; the exchange rate is closeRunning on the lower track, the Bollinger Bands are slightly "open and downward", indicating that the downward trend continues but the space below becomes crowded. At the price level, Bollinger's lower track of 1.1577 forms the first line of defense; if it falls, the bandwidth will passively move downward, and short sellers may try to expand the retracement. On the upside, the middle rail 1.1667 and the near-end resistance 1.1650 overlap to form a dense resistance area. Only by effectively standing firm and not breaking through the backtest can a mean return to the middle rail be formed.
On the momentum indicator, MACD (26,12,9) DIFF-0.0026, DEA-0.0025, histogram -0.0003, the negative values narrowed, typical of "short kinetic energy attenuation has not been reversed"; RSI (14) reported 35.6588, below 40 and above 30, which is weak and not extremely oversold.
Key price distribution: support-1.1577; resistance-1.1650, strong resistance-1.1667, extended resistance-1.1758. If it stands firm at 1.1667, we can discuss the backtest of 1.1758; if it falls below 1.1577, the short trend may gain another "volume lead".
Outlook:
In the short term (a few days), the EURUSD tends to maintain a consolidation market near 1.1600. If the Fed officials' speeches continue to be dovish and French political noise is reduced in stages, the exchange rate may experience a "technical rebound-mean return", with 1.1650/1.1667 as the first target zone; only if the backtest confirms that it does not break through, it is expected to further touch 1.1758. On the contrary, if the shutdown intensifies or the Eurozone data continues to weaken, a fall below 1.1577 will open up the retracement space of a lower platform, and trend trading will once again dominate.
The middle line (several weeks to a quarter) follows two clues: first, the direction of interest rate differentials between Europe and the United States; second, the quality of growth in the Eurozone. If the FOMC cuts interest rates twice this year and the European Central Bank remains unchanged, the convergence of interest rate spreads will be beneficial to the euro but it will be difficult to rewrite the general trend; if industrial momentum continues to stagnate, the fundamental weight of the euro will overwhelm the improvement in interest rate spreads. The base scenario maintains "weak fluctuations and downward range movement": before there is a clear improvement in fundamentals or catalysis by strong policies, it will still be difficult to continue to stand above 1.16; only when RSI returns to 50, MACD crosses the zero axis and is accompanied by a "volume energy breakthrough" pointed to by the expansion of Bollinger Bands width, bulls will have the ability to organize a tradable trend.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: When risk aversion and easing are on the same stage, can the EUR/USD still hold up?" It was carefully xmspot.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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