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Australian dollar short strike back? The final battle of the key weekly starts
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Australian dollar short strike? The key weekly final battle begins." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Australia dollar against the US dollar fell for two consecutive trading days, and stabilized at around 0.6535 on Friday (September 26). Previously, the Australian dollar was under pressure against the dollar as U.S. economic data provided support for the dollar better than expected.
U.S. President Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on imported brands or patented drugs starting October 1 (unless pharmaceutical xmspot.companies build factories in the United States), and the risk aversion caused by this news also puts downward pressure on the Australian dollar against the dollar.
Australia's monthly consumer price index rose 3.0% year-on-year, higher than the 2.8% increase in July. ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures show that the market currently expects the probability of interest rate cuts in September is only 4%. After the data was released, market expectations for the RBA's interest rate cut at its November meeting have dropped to 50% from nearly 70% before.
The Australian dollar is moving smoothly, and the dollar remains stable before the release of PCE data
The market is closely watching the personal consumption expenditure price index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, which will be released later on Friday.
U.S. annualized GDP grew by 3.8% in the second quarter, higher than the previous value and expected 3.3%. The GDP price index rose 2.1% during the same period, with both expected and previous values being 2.0%.
The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States fell from 232,000 to 218,000 last week, lower than the market expectations of 235,000.
Kansas City Fed Chairman Schmid said the rate cuts help ensure that the job market remains in good shape.
Chicago Fed Chairman Goulsby pointed out that he is not in a hurry to further relax policies when inflation is above the target and the trend is wrong.
Milan, the new Fed director, tends to be moreA radical 50 basis point cut in case the labor market collapses.
San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley said Wednesday that further rate cuts may be needed to restore price stability and provide necessary support to the labor market.
The US S&P Global xmspot.comprehensive PMI fell from 54.6 in August to 53.6, indicating that the growth momentum of private sectors has been hindered. The manufacturing PMI slowed from 53.0 to 52.0, and the service PMI fell from 54.5 to 53.9, both indicating that demand may weaken.
Feder Chairman Powell said Tuesday the impact of weak labor market exceeded concerns about stubborn inflation, so he decided to cut interest rates in September. But he expressed satisfaction with the current policy path and also suggested that if the FOMC believes further easing is needed, interest rate cuts may continue.
The White House announced that Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanys and U.S. President Trump will hold their first face-to-face meeting in Washington on October 20 to discuss the Ocus nuclear submarine agreement.
Australia's S&P Global xmspot.comprehensive PMI initial value fell from 55.5 to 52.1 in September, a three-month low. Growth in both manufacturing and services slowed due to weak new business inflows and xmspot.commodity orders at their fastest decline in eight months. The initial value of the service industry PMI dropped from 55.8 to 52.0, and the manufacturing industry PMI dropped from 53.0 to 51.6.
RBA Chairman Brock said earlier this week that labor market conditions eased slightly and unemployment rose slightly. She pointed out that the recent rate cuts should support household and business spending, while stressing that the RBA must remain vigilant and be ready to respond to changes at any time.
Technical Analysis
Daily chart technical analysis shows that the Australian dollar against the US dollar is below the nine-day index moving average (EMA, 0.6579), indicating that the short-term price momentum is weak.
In addition, the 14th-day relative strength index is below the 50 level, suggesting that bearish tendencies dominate.
In the downward trend, the Australian dollar against the US dollar initially supported at the September 2 low of 0.6483. If it falls below this level, the exchange rate may fall near the August 21 low of 0.6414 (three-month low).
In the upward direction, the initial resistance is at 0.6549 for the 50-day exponential moving average, and after the breakthrough, it may further test the nine-day exponential moving average, 0.6579. If these moving average resistance can be effectively broken through, it will improve the medium- and short-term price momentum and push the exchange rate to reach the September 17 high of 0.6707 (eleven-month high).
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Australian dollar short strike? The key weekly final battle begins". It was carefully xmspot.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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