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European and American central banks, "to go against each other", the euro rises every day, can you still chase it?

Wonderful Introduction:

The moon has phases, people have joys and sorrows, whether life has changes, the year has four seasons, after the long night, you can see dawn, suffer pain, you can have happiness, endure the cold winter, you don’t need to lie down, and after all the cold plums, you can look forward to the New Year.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: European and American Central Banks, "Fight against each other", the euro rises every day, can you still chase it?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

In the early trading of the Asian market on Monday (August 11), the euro fluctuated up 0.26% against the US dollar, and is now at 1.1670. Thanks to the interest rate policy differences between European and American central banks, the euro has steadily strengthened. The euro rose more than 1% against the U.S. dollar in the past five trading days. As of now, bullish sentiment still exists in the context of European and American central banks playing a decisive role. Currently, bulls dominate, mainly because the market expects a lower interest rate environment in the United States, which may further weaken the dollar. This expectation has become the main driving force behind the current trend, and if this expectation continues, we may see more sustained buying in the euro against the dollar in the short term.

What is happening to central banks in various countries?

The division between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank remains large: the United States maintains an interest rate of 4.5%, while the deposit rate in Europe remains at 2.00%. However, what began to change was the future policy prospects. The Fed has begun to suggest that it may enter a cycle of interest rate cuts in the near future, which could significantly reduce the relative attractiveness of the dollar.

This expectation has been reflected in the market. According to CME data, the probability of lowering interest rates to 4.25% on September 17 has risen to 89.4%. In addition, for the October 29 meeting, the probability of further rate cuts to 4.00% is 57.3%.

In contrast, the ECB appears to have ended its long cycle of rate cuts. At the next meeting on September 10, the probability of deposit rates remaining at 2.00% is 86.3%, indicating that the ECB now believes a neutral monetary policy stance is appropriate after several rate cuts earlier this year.

This change in prospects is beginning to affect the strength of the US dollar. While interest rates in the U.S. are still higher than in Europe, the market is digesting the environment of expected yield declines in the U.S., which may reduce demand for assets denominated in US dollars. If expectations for a Fed rate cut are consolidated, the euro may continue to make progress, especially if the ECB maintains its more stable policy route.

Is the weakness of the dollar becoming a structural problem?

The weakness of the US dollar can be seen more clearly by tracking the performance of the US dollar index against a basket of currencies. Recently, the index has fallen below the 100 integer mark and is currently hovering around the 98 mark, suggesting that the US dollar may start a new round of bearish market.

This decline seems to be directly related to market expectations that the Fed will adopt a looser policy, and if the U.S. dollar index continues to decline, selling pressure may further increase. In this case, the euro may maintain upward momentum against the dollar, thanks to capital shifts from the dollar to a more stable currency.

Euro Trend Analysis

Euro Price is trying to consolidate the bullish trend: Although the euro has seen a significant pullback in recent weeks, new bullish momentum has begun to form, aiming to regain its highs in recent months. If buying pressure continues, the currency may successfully develop into a larger level of upward trend.

Relative strength index: The relative strength index has rebounded to above 50 levels, indicating that bullish momentum is recovering. If this trend continues, it may strengthen the short-term upward trend.

Average trend index: The average trend index line is still below 20, indicating that the market volatility is low. Unless this technological situation changes, the market may continue to alternate between a brief rise and sideways until stronger catalysts appear.

Support resistance

Main resistance level: 1.1806, which marks the annual high and is the most important obstacle for buyers. Continuous breakthroughs to this level may open the door to new highs, confirming a stronger bullish phase.

Initial support level: 1.1609, consistent with the 50-day moving average, the area may act as a temporary technical barrier in a short-term pullback, and price staying above that level is crucial to maintaining a bullish tendency.

Key support level: 1.1452, this level corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. If the market develops downward, this position needs to be paid attention to. Returning to the region could mark a structural shift that could pave the way for short-term bearish trends if buying momentum fails to recover.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: European and American Central Banks, "Fight against each other", the euro rises every day, can it still be chased?" is carefully xmspot.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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European and American central banks, "to go against each other", the euro rises every day, can you still chase it?

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

European and American central banks, "to go against each other", the euro rises every day, can you still chase it?

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason