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Will gold break the sideways curse?
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Will gold break the sideways curse?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Wednesday (July 30), gold prices consolidated narrowly above the recent lows, and the overall market maintained a volatile pattern. The market is currently in a wait-and-see stage before major fundamental events. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the second quarter GDP, core PCE price index and other key data will be released one after another, and traders are generally cautious. Gold stabilized slightly after continuous declines and had not yet formed an effective reversal. The differences between long and short market in the future intensified and the trend was approaching the brink of breakthrough.
Franchise
The dominant logic of the gold market this week xmspot.comes from macroeconomic expectations and uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. After four consecutive trading days of gains, the US dollar index's rise slowed down and temporarily retreated to around the 99 mark. Currently, traders' expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September still dominate. The CMEFedWatch tool shows that the market believes that the probability of a rate cut in September is 64%. However, the upcoming Q2GDP and core PCE price index data will have a significant impact on this expectation.
Analysts believe that if GDP and inflation data are weak, strengthen market expectations of easing and are expected to push gold to attract buying again; on the contrary, if the data performs strongly, it may suppress expectations of interest rate cuts, thereby supporting the strengthening of the US dollar and under pressure. In addition, the Federal Reserve is about to hold a interest rate meeting. Although it is almost a foregone conclusion to keep interest rates unchanged this time, Powell's speech will become the focus of market attention. Any signals about internal discrepancy, judgment of inflation paths or adjustments to policy frameworks may stimulate severe market fluctuations.
From a global perspective, geopolitical risksIt has been relatively stable recently and has not provided sudden support for gold. Overall, gold currently lacks a single driving factor, and its trend is more influenced by the expected game.
Technical:
The current 240-minute gold K-line chart shows a typical consolidation pattern. The near the Bollinger band middle rail (3336.29) has become an important equilibrium area for the current price. After the price quickly fell to 3301.75, it has formed a short-term stabilization, and then it remains fluctuating between the middle and lower rails to repair.
Observing the K-line structure, the key is the 3350 line, which is a long-short watershed in the early stage. Analysis believes that if the price cannot effectively stand on this position, the short trend will be difficult to end.
In terms of indicators, although MACD is still below the 0 axis, the green column turns red, and the DIFF and DEA lines show a golden cross, reflecting the weakening of short momentum. The RSI indicator is currently at 44.55, in the neutral and weak range, and has not yet entered the oversold range, but it is still far from the strong range.
Overall, analysis believes that gold has begun to stop falling in the short term, but its technical structure is still a weak rebound, and the trend reversal has not been confirmed yet; breaking through the 3350 line can be regarded as a temporary stabilization. If it falls below 3300, the downward space will be opened again.
Previous market sentiment observation:
The current market sentiment is in the "waiting for signal" stage. Judging from the fluctuations in gold prices, long and short forces are rebalancing, and traders are staying highly sensitive to future directions. The shrinking of the Bollinger band and the decline in volatility indicate that the market is in a period of xmspot.compression and accumulation, indicating that a trend breakthrough may occur in the short term.
From the emotional level, funds have not significantly returned to gold. The trading volume during the technical rebound process has not increased significantly, reflecting that market confidence is still insufficient. At the same time, although the US dollar index was under pressure for a short time, it did not form a reversal trend. Traders tend to wait and see lightly before the data is released.
Follow the bulls, those who bet on easing hope to use weak data to boost safe-haven demand and point to a breakthrough in gold. The bears are paying attention to the recent hawkish remarks within the Federal Reserve and the resilience of the US labor market, and tend to believe that the current interest rate level will remain for some time.
The market sentiment is generally neutral, and the possibility of short-term change is high. Traders are generally wary of the rapid fluctuations caused by sudden news.
The above content is all about "[XM Forex Decision Analysis]: Will gold break the sideways curse?". It was carefully xmspot.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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