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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
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FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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market analysis
With the fiscal turmoil again, can the pound stabilize its rise?
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The fiscal turmoil has recurred, can the pound stabilize its rise?" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Wednesday (July 23), the pound pound continued its rebound trend against the US dollar (GBP/USD), hitting a maximum of 1.3548 in the day, maintaining a fluctuation above the middle track of the Bollinger Band. Although the UK's fiscal risks have once again attracted attention, market expectations of the Bank of England's upcoming interest rate cuts and the weakness of the US dollar have affected the pound's exchange rate. In the short term, traders will closely monitor the upcoming preliminary PMI data for the UK and the US in July as an important basis for judging the economic momentum of the two countries.
Brands
Latest data show that the British government hit its second highest monthly loan amount since 1993 in June to cope with the debt interest pressure brought by inflation. This fiscal expansion may prompt the British government to raise taxes in the fall budget, further suppressing corporate profits and residents' disposable income, posing a risk of economic growth.
Nevertheless, the pound is still favored by the market, mainly because the market expects the Bank of England to launch a rate cut cycle at its policy meeting in August. Several institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, all expected a 25 basis point decline. The clarification of interest rate path expectations will help stabilize market sentiment in the short term and weaken short suppression of the pound.
On the United States, although the Trump administration reached a trade agreement with Japan, plans to impose a 15% tariff on Japanese products, and promised to open the market to the United States and invest $550 billion, the US dollar response was flat, and the US dollar index (DXY) hovered around 97.45, approaching a two-week low. The market will pay attention to the US July PMI data released on Thursday to determine whether its economic momentum can continue.
Technical:
The current pound pound is in a clear technical rebound rhythm against the US dollar. K-line chart shows that exchange rate is from lowSince the rebound, 1.3364 has broken through the Bollinger middle track (1.3464) and key resistance of 1.3500, reaching a maximum of 1.3548. The Bollinger Band shows signs of expansion, indicating an increase in volatility. The current price runs between the middle and upper rails of the Bollinger Band, with the potential to further test the upper rail pressure (1.3561).
MACD indicators remain in the golden cross state, DIFF and DEA both cross the zero axis, the bar chart continues to grow but the momentum converges slightly, indicating that there may be a risk of adjustment in the short term. RSI (14) remains above 67, approaching the overbought area, and there is short-term pressure to take profits.
Analysts believe that short-term support focuses on 1.3500 and Bollinger's middle rail 1.3464, and if it is lost, it may backtest the 1.3400 area; the upper resistance focuses on 1.3548 and Bollinger's upper rail 1.3561, and if it breaks through, it is expected to challenge the previous high of 1.3752.
Previous observation of market sentiment:
The current rebound of pound reflects that market sentiment is in a state of tendency to bulls. Although the UK's fiscal situation is under pressure, the market is more concerned about the loose expectations brought about by the turning point of monetary policy in the future. Against this background, the pound is supported by interest rate expectations and the weakness of the US dollar in the short term. RSI is in a relatively strong area, and the MACD golden cross continues, indicating that the market sentiment tends to be positive, but the high-level technical indicators are close to the key overbought level, which also indicates that the market is in a short-term overheating stage.
Future Outlook:
Bules Outlook:
Analysts believe that if the initial PMI in the UK in July is better than expected, and the US data has not improved significantly, the relative strength of the pound will be further strengthened. If the exchange rate effectively stands above 1.3561, the space to rise to 1.3660 and 1.3720 will be opened, and the medium-term target may point to the previous high of 1.3752. At that time, we need to pay attention to whether the Bollinger bands will accompany further expansion.
Short prospects:
Analysts believe that if the UK data is weak, the US PMI is unexpectedly strong, or if the UK fiscal problems fermentate, the pound may experience a pullback. After falling below the 1.3500 support, it will backtest the 1.3464 and 1.3400 line, further supporting and focusing on 1.3364. Technical indicators have already shown signs of overbought in the short term. If the fundamentals are weakened, it may trigger a "false breakthrough" decline.
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