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Five major events to happen in the global market this week
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The moon has phases, people have joys and sorrows, whether life has changes, the year has four seasons, after the long night, you can see dawn, suffer pain, you can have happiness, endure the cold winter, you don’t need to lie down, and after all the cold plums, you can look forward to the New Year.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Official Website]: Five major events that will happen in the global market this week". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Will trade tensions worsen? The risk of deterioration remains ahead of the August 1 deadline, especially in negotiations between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). The interest rate decisions and several economic data in the old mainland have also attracted much attention.
1. Trade negotiations have become the central topic
Measures and countermeasures. The US-European negotiations are not going well. U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly wants to impose a benchmark tariff of 15% or 20% on imported European goods, up from the current 10%. European negotiations initially hoped to reach a "zero-to-zero" agreement to eliminate trade barriers.
In addition, Germany originally wanted to reach a deal quickly and accept concessions, but is now tightening its stance and getting closer to France. Officially, the European xmspot.commission is in charge of negotiations and has been cautious, saying it will work to reach an agreement.
Will the negotiations break down? If so, Trump could impose a 30% tariff on all imported EU goods, and the EU could impose industry-specific tariffs on the United States. In his recent letter to European xmspot.commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Trump vowed to impose higher tariffs on the EU if retaliated.
Is it just the darkness before dawn? Trump is known for his “escalation for downgrade” tactics, and negotiations seem always on the verge of collapse, but may end up reaching an agreement.
I expect trade negotiations this week to play an increasingly important role in promoting the market.
2. Powell may inadvertently affect the market
Tuesday, 20:30 Beijing time. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was absent during the central bank's "silent period"See public appearance.
Powell could theoretically break the central bank’s self-silence on such issues and provide some relevant information after his colleague, Fed Director Christopher Waller, publicly called for a rate cut at next week’s meeting.
Bond markets and investors expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged next week, but his opening remarks at the Washington event could spark some attention. I think Powell will skip any mention of monetary policy, which could give a brief boost to the USD (USD).
3. The European Central Bank may boost the euro
On Thursday, Beijing time, a decision was made at 20:15 Beijing time, and a press conference was held at 20:45 Beijing time. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged as inflation not only drops to around 2% of the central bank’s target, but remains stable at that level.
If price increases remain stable, ECB President Christina Lagarde may be asked about the potential rate cuts at his September meeting. I expect she will avoid any xmspot.commitments, maybe even explicitly refuse, and keep the Euro (EUR) buying.
The uncertainty about the U.S. tariffs and countermeasures against the EU are still high. Central banks usually wait for some clear signals before taking action. In September, the ECB will release new inflation and growth employee forecasts, which Lagarde may say is needed.
4. Can the US labor market further improve?
Thursday, 20:30 Beijing time. The number of people applying for initial jobless claims in the United States has dropped to about 220,000, below the level of more than 240,000. This weekly barometer shows that the labor market remains stable despite turbulence around the tariffs. Only a jump of more than 240,000 will cause concern.
In addition to the main unemployment application data, investors will also pay attention to the number of applicants for continued unemployment benefits. The number of unemployed people rose earlier this year and then stabilized. Any further increase will be worrying.
5. S&P Global PMI may reflect growth in confidence
Thursday, 21:45 Beijing time. S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) serves as a measure of the xmspot.company’s economic perception. Are they as optimistic as the stock market? It may not be that optimistic, but Trump’s avoidance of the heaviest tariffs may be revealed in these business confidence investigations.
Service industry PMI is more important because it represents a larger sector of the U.S. economy. Both data for manufacturing and services were about 53 points in June, exceeding the 50-point dividing line between expansion and contraction.
In a few days, economic data and some Trump’s thoughts about Powell’s future dominated the market, and trade became the core of this week’s action. Headlines may appear at any time, shaking the market. Please stay tuned.
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